India
faces a major demographic upheaval. The sharply rising Muslim numbers, both in
absolute and percentage terms, and a corresponding decline in the population of
Hindus, Sikhs, Jains and Buddhists has the potential to escalate fault-line
conflicts and create a Lebanon-like situation. Data from the last six censuses
held since 1951 suggests that in percentage terms there has been a relentless
increase in the population of only one community, the Muslims; all other
communities are in a declining mode. Since 1981, Muslim population growth has
been in a fast forward mode, growing at almost 45% higher rate than Hindus and
Christians. In terms of percentage, Sikh population has recorded the steepest
decline since independence.
Census 2001 put the decadal growth rate of Muslims at around
36%, while Hindu growth rate declined from 23% to 20%. On the eve of the
Maharashtra Assembly elections, an unseemly political controversy was
manufactured by the government on the ground that since no census had taken place
in J&K in 1991, the conclusions drawn in terms of Census 2001 data
were faulty. This led to a very clumsy fudging of Census 2001, by omitting from
the census 3.67 crore people living in Jammu & Kashmir and Assam, States
having high Muslim population.
In 1981, no census could be held in Assam due to
disturbed conditions, but that did not result in any political ruckus, nor was
fudging of census data done at that time because no elections were due then.
The most extraordinary aspect of this fudging of the population profile was the
deletion with retrospective effect of population data of these two sensitive
states from every Census held since 1961 - something never done before in any
democratic country.
In a lucid article, professional demographers, late P.N.
Mari Bhat and A.J. Francis Zavier, wrote that “the fertility of Muslims, which
was about 10 per cent higher than that of Hindus before independence, is now 25
to 30 per cent higher than the Hindu rate”. This means the Muslim population is
now growing at a rate nearly 45% higher than that of Hindus.
The authors added that the assertion in a section of English
media that Census 2001 had revealed a higher reduction in the growth rate of
Muslims than Hindus was incorrect. The decline in Hindu growth rate was higher
at 12.2% as against 10.3% decline in Muslim growth. Fast growth of Muslim
population, especially in non-Muslim countries, is a global phenomenon, they
averred.
There is no truth in the assertion that higher Muslim
fertility was due to poverty or illiteracy. Since 36% Muslims live in urban
areas, as against only 26% Hindus, and as Muslims have a higher life expectancy
at birth than Hindus, logically their fertility should have been lower than
Hindus. But Muslim fertility continues to be higher despite their greater
urbanization and lower incidence of infant and child mortality. Within 7-8
years, the gap between the longevity of Hindus and Muslims has widened to 3
years, i.e., 68 years for Muslims as against only 65 years for Hindus [National
Family Health Survey of 2005-2006].
Acceptance of family planning by Muslims is lower at least
by 25 percent than Hindus and other Indic communities. Late Mari Bhat and
Francis Zavier highlighted the fact that in non-Muslim countries there is a
general trend towards higher growth rate of Muslim populations.
According to the National Family Health Survey-2 of 1998-99,
in Kerala where the literacy level of the two communities was almost equal (and
due to large remittances from Gulf countries Muslims are economically better
off than Hindus), the growth rate of Muslims remained much higher than Hindus
by almost 45 percent. Analysis of Census 2001shows that on an average every
Muslim woman is giving birth to at least one more child than her Hindu
counterpart.
Indians must understand the mindboggling import of Statement
7 of Census 2001 Religion Data Report (page xlii) which gives the religion-wise
breakup of children in the 0-6 year age group. It shows that the percentage of
0-6 year old Muslim cohorts (a term commonly used in demographic parlance) is
21% higher than Hindu cohorts. This gives Muslims an advantage of 7.6% over
Hindus as and when these cohorts enter reproductive age, say roughly between
2012 and 2016.
This gives a vital clue to the demographic crisis likely to
engulf India
anytime after 2011 or latest by 2021. These 0-6 yrs old cohorts (enumerated in
2001) will become reproductively active between 2012 and 2016 and continue to
reproduce for the next 30-40 years. With a 21% higher cohort population and at
least 25 percent less acceptance of family planning, the growth in Muslim
population during the next few decades is likely to become even more
fast-paced.
The Census 2001 Religion Data Report further reveals that
among all religious groups, the Muslim population of 0-6 year cohorts was
highest at 18.7%. The lowest percentage was seen among Jains (10.6%) and Sikhs
(12.8%). In coming years, the percentage increase in the population of these
two religious groups, important components of Indic civilization, will be
slower than the growth recorded in Census 2001, and their share in the
population will decline further, possibly at a faster pace.
In terms of percentage increase, the biggest quantum jump in
Muslim population in coming decades will occur in Haryana where the ratio of
Muslim cohorts is almost 60% higher than Hindu cohorts! Next in descending
order registering fast Muslim growth will be Assam,
West Bengal, Uttaranchal, Delhi, Nagaland and Bihar.
A further analysis of 0-6 year cohorts’ data reveals that
out of 35 States and Union
Territories listed in
Statement 7, the percentage of Muslim cohorts was higher than Hindu cohorts in
as many as 31 States and UTs. The percentage of 0-6 year Hindu cohorts was
marginally higher than Muslims only in Sikkim and Madhya Pradesh and the
UTs of Daman & Diu and Andaman & Nicobar Islands. In coming decades,
Muslim population will grow at a higher rate than that of Hindus in 31 States
and Union Territories.
Statement 7 of Census 2001 Religion Data Report is self explanatory
and vividly depicts the looming shadow of future demographic changes across India.
Trapped in a suicidal cult of political correctness, most
Indian intellectuals refuse to understand the reasons which prompted former
British Prime Minister Tony Blair to advise all British couples to opt for the 5 children norm. Incidentally, his wife Cherry Blair
gave birth to their fourth child while her husband was Prime Minister. Indeed,
in recent years many European countries have announced liberal cash bonuses to
couples who opt for more children. Peter Costello, Australia's Chancellor of the
Exchequer, urged every couple to have at least 3 children, preferably more –
“one child for father, one for the mother and one for the country”.
Apprehensive of population growth in Indonesia, Peter Costello announced
an incentive of 2000 Australian dollars for every child born after June 2004.
Many keen observers of global population trends like Niall Ferguson, Bernard
Lewis, Robert Costello, Bruce Bawer and Mark Steyn are alerting their countrymen to the threat posed by demographic
changes to their civilisational values.
India
has many bleeding heart liberals who will ask why this global panic? The answer
is that in 1900, Muslims constituted only 12% of the world population; they
grew to 18% in 1992-93 (when Huntington
published his first thesis on clash of civilizations). Today Muslims constitute
24% of global population. Samuel Huntington pointed out that by 2025, they will
constitute 30% of world population. [Source: Spangler, *The Decline of the
West*].
According to some demographic estimates, Muslims might
constitute 37% to 40% of world population by 2100 AD. In recent years the
number of jihads worldwide has also multiplied; Thailand is the latest entrant to
the growing list of jihadi conflict zones.
In India,
the Hindu birth rate is fast approaching the European average. According to
Census 2001, the decadal Total Fertility Rate of Hindus of Kolkata district
(West Bengal) was barely 1.0%, much lower than the birth rates of Germany, Italy
and Spain.
In Kerala too the Hindu TFR at 1.64 is below the replacement level of 2.1in
2001.
Kerala has witnessed a massive increase in Muslim population
from approx. 23,75,000 in 1951 to 78,64,000 in 2001. During the same period the
population of Hindus grew from 83,48,000 to 1,79,2000, while that of Christians
increased from 28,26,000 to 60,57,000. During the last five decades the Hindu
percentage in Kerala’s population declined from 61.61 to 56.28, while that of
Muslims rose from 17.53 to 24.70 percent. The percentage share of Christians
declined from 20.86 in 1951 to 19.02 in 2001.
The Indian middle class and opinion makers must grasp the
long term consequences of the demographic crisis. In a different context, while
analyzing socio-economic aspects of Census 2001, demographer Ashish Bose
estimated that in 49 districts Muslims already constitute more than 30% of the
population. A back-of-the envelope calculation made in the light of Muslim
growth rate in the last two decades shows that Muslims will attain majority status
in all these 49 districts between 2091 and 2111, perhaps even earlier.
According to a study published by the Centre for Policy
Studies, around 2061, the total Muslim population of the sub-continent (India, Pakistan
and Bangladesh,
counted together) will exceed the total Hindu/ Sikh population. This could lead
to a fierce struggle for supremacy in the sub-continent.
This is already visible in the chorus for more unmerited
concessions for Muslims. The Sachar Committee admitted, perhaps unwittingly, that
by 2101 Muslim population in India
will be around 32 to 34 crores. It was 13.8 crores in 2001 and barely 3.77
crores in 1951.
In recent times, there have been strident demands by Muslim
leaders for greater share in jobs and elected bodies. In 2006, Mohammad Azam
Khan of the Samajwadi Party called for carving a Muslim Pradesh out of Western
UP, instead of a Harit Pradesh advocated by the Rashtriya Lok Dal.
A similar demand to create four or five Muslim-dominated
enclaves was voiced by Dr. Omar Khalidi in an interview published in *The Times
of India*, New Delhi,
June 2004. He later wrote in *The Radiance*, mouthpiece of Jamaat-e Islami. He
was assiduously following the roadmap for another partition of India.
Advocating the creation of Muslim-dominated enclaves in the Mewat region of
Haryana, certain parts of UP, Bihar, Andhra
Pradesh and Karnataka, Dr. Khalidi demanded reservations for Muslims on the
pattern of Kerala, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh.
The late Dr. Khalidi was in the forefront of the lobby seeking
proportionate representation for Muslims in various services, especially in the
defence services and para-military forces. He and G.M. Banatwala of the Muslim League are believed to have indirectly used the
Sachar Committee as a medium to mount political pressure for seeking jobs for
Muslims in proportion to their growing population in government departments,
especially the defence and para-military forces, besides greater representation
in Parliament and State legislatures.
Muslims are fully aware of their future empowerment through
sharp growth in their numbers. Many have started pushing the claim to
disproportionate political power in India. Sometime ago when Amethi MP
Rahul Gandhi QOM".
visited Aligarh
Muslim University,
a student asked him how soon he visualized a Muslim becoming Prime Minister of
India. Obviously, the battle lines are being drawn for another
politico-religious conflict in India.
In conclusion, it would be in order to recall late P.N. Mari
Bhat and Francis Zavier’s analysis that the fertility of Muslims was about 10%
higher than that of Hindus before independence and is now 25 to 30% higher than
the Hindu rate. Hindus have lost considerable ground since 1947. Yet no Hindu
political or spiritual leader has tried to rouse the millions of ill informed
Hindus about the looming threat of demographic decimation of their ancient
faith and civilisational values.
The writing on the wall is clear. The Christians of Europe and Hindus of India have pushed themselves to the edge of suicide by failure to understand the dynamics of demography in this age of adult suffrage.
Russian demographers describe the rampant recourse to
abortion by their countrymen in quest of the small family norm as ‘do it
yourself genocide’.